Match Group Jumps as Evercore Upgrades on Tinder's First User Growth Since 2022

Tinder may finally be turning the corner, and Wall Street noticed. Evercore ISI upgraded Match Group (MTCH) to Outperform from In Line on Monday and raised its price target to $53 from $39.

Shares rose 3.4% on the day, as Investing.com reported. The firm's analyst, Mark Mahaney, said fundamental trends at the company are the best Evercore has seen since 2021.

The key datapoint comes from Sensor Tower, a third-party app-intelligence firm. Its numbers show Tinder's monthly active users grew year over year in September, the first positive reading since February 2022.

That matters because Tinder's user decline has been the core worry on Match for years. Hinge, the company's other big dating app, has been growing nicely. Tinder is the larger business, and it's the one that has been dragging on sentiment.

Match itself has been signaling a recovery. In its second-quarter report in August, the company said Tinder engagement was improving, while Hinge posted 22% year-over-year revenue growth and a 13% rise in global monthly active users.

Evercore's work adds an outside check on that story. It also adds a younger-user angle. The firm's own survey found that online dating app adoption among actively dating 18-to-29-year-olds rose to 70% from 56% a year ago.

That closes what the firm described as a roughly 20-point gap versus older age groups. For a platform that depends on Gen Z to keep its funnel full, that's a notable shift.

"We believe Tinder's user recovery is likely accelerating and tracking ahead of management's plan for MAU and payer growth by the end of FY27." — Evercore ISI research note

That line, quoted by CNBC in its Monday analyst-call roundup, is the heart of the upgrade. Evercore thinks Tinder's paying-user trend will turn positive well before management's own timeline.

The numbers behind the target are specific. Evercore now projects full-year 2027 revenue of $3.74 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.46 billion, about 3% above consensus.

The $53 target is also well above where most of the Street sits. Match's average analyst target is roughly $41.81, so Evercore is nearly 27% above the pack. That's a high-conviction call, and it can move the stock if others follow.

Now the caveats, and Evercore listed a few itself. Mahaney cautioned that third-party panel data historically runs ahead of company-reported figures. In plain English: Sensor Tower's read is a good sign, but Match's own numbers might look less rosy when they arrive.

Apple is another risk. The analyst flagged potential headwinds from proposed changes to App Store payment commissions, though he views the financial hit as manageable given faster user growth.

One positive month of user data isn't a trend. The company needs to show consecutive quarters of improvement in the numbers it reports.

So what should you do with this? If you've been waiting for evidence that Tinder has stopped shrinking, this is the best outside confirmation yet. It's still a single data source, plus one analyst's survey work.

A sensible approach is to treat the upgrade as a reason to put Match on the watchlist, not necessarily to buy the full position on the day of a 3% pop. Let the stock settle and see if buyers defend Monday's levels.

The next real test is Match's third-quarter report. Watch Tinder's payer count and monthly active users first. If both turn positive, the Evercore thesis gets real support and the $53 target starts to look reachable.

Also watch Hinge. Its growth has been a cushion, and continued strength there gives Match room to be patient while Tinder rebuilds.

Bottom line: Tinder's first user growth in more than four years is a legitimate turnaround signal, but Match still has to prove it in reported numbers.