Micron Beats Earnings Again as Burry Bets Against the Rally

Micron just posted its eighth straight earnings beat, and the stock still can't shake off its most famous skeptic. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue came in at $54.23 billion, blowing past the $50.97 billion Wall Street was expecting.

Non-GAAP earnings per share hit $33.42 versus a $31.35 estimate — up more than 1,000% year over year. Gross margin jumped to 87% from 45.7% a year ago, numbers that look more like a software company's than a chipmaker's.

The AI memory story keeps getting bigger. As Yahoo Finance reported this week, cloud memory demand has been the standout, with AI data centers lifting every one of Micron's business units. Management now has 26 strategic customer agreements locked in, up from 16 back in August, and more than 75% of 2027 output is already spoken for, with remaining performance obligations totaling roughly $150 billion.

CEO Sanjay Mehrotra isn't pretending the shortage ends anytime soon.

"We do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance." — Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO, Micron Technology

That's the bull case in one sentence: Micron can't make enough chips to meet AI demand, so pricing power stays firmly in the company's hands. Fiscal Q1 guidance calls for $61.5 billion in revenue, plus or minus $1.5 billion, and adjusted EPS of $38.15, plus or minus a dollar.

For investors watching MU, the real near-term catalyst isn't the next earnings print — it's December 9. That's when Micron's CHIPS Act restrictions on share buybacks expire, two years after the company signed its government funding agreement. With $68.3 billion in net cash and only $2.2 billion left on its current repurchase authorization, management will almost certainly need to announce a much bigger buyback program once the restriction lifts.

CFO Mark Murphy has already set the tone, telling investors on the earnings call that margins should stay meaningfully above any prior cycle peak even at floor pricing. Fiscal 2026 buybacks totaled just $650 million — a figure that looks tiny next to the cash pile sitting on the balance sheet.

Not everyone is convinced the run continues. Michael Burry — the investor famous for calling the 2008 housing crash — has swapped his Micron short for put options expiring in June 2027, betting the stock loses roughly half its value by then. He's framed it as a broader AI bubble call, writing that he's "moving timelines up" because he wants more leverage before what he sees as an inevitable unwind.

Options traders seem to be leaning his way on that specific expiration — the put/call ratio for the June 2027 contracts sits at 4.21, well above the 0.63 ratio across the full options chain. Yet the stock keeps grinding higher day to day, up more than 500% over the past year.

CNBC's Jim Cramer has taken the other side publicly, telling viewers that shorting Micron ahead of the December buyback announcement is "digging their own grave." He's compared Micron's shift to Nucor's multi-decade transformation from cyclical steel producer to a business the market now values more like an industrial compounder — a comparison that implies a much higher sustainable multiple if it sticks.

The disconnect between Burry's timeline and Micron's current trajectory is the whole trade right now. Shares trade around 7 times forward earnings despite management guiding to historic margins — cheap if the AI memory cycle has years left, expensive if Burry's bubble call plays out before next June.

For anyone holding MU or weighing an entry, watch two things over the next 60 days. First, the size of the new buyback authorization once the CHIPS restriction lifts December 9 — a number meaningfully larger than $2.2 billion reinforces the bull case. Second, HBM pricing commentary heading into 2027, since that's the exact input Burry's bet depends on breaking down.

Micron isn't a cheap stock in dollar terms with shares above $1,000. But on an earnings basis, it remains one of the more reasonably priced ways to play the AI infrastructure buildout — just know you're also betting against one of Wall Street's most notorious bears.